Africa Verto Data · October 2026 edition
Africa Monetary Pulse
Policy rates, inflation and the gap between them across seven central banks covering 19 African countries. The real rate shows whether savers and lenders are paid above inflation, and how much room each central bank has to move.
Frozen edition. Figures as published on 25 October 2026 and not updated since. For the latest figures, see Africa Monetary Pulse.
Same oil shock, opposite moves: Nigeria cut by 350 basis points, South Africa hiked
Falling inflation gave Nigeria room to cut even as fuel prices rose. Rising inflation gave South Africa none. Ghana now has the highest real policy rate in the tracker, and four of the seven rate-setters decide by 24 November.
Real policy rate, latest
Policy rate minus latest annual inflation, percentage pointsWho has room to move
Latest annual inflation against each central bank's target, %What moved
Analysis by Africa Verto, based on figures as of 25 October 2026.
Same shock, opposite moves. Nigeria cut its policy rate by 350 basis points to 23% on 22 September. The next day South Africa raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%, its second hike this year. Both are absorbing the same oil-price shock, but they start from very different places. Nigeria's inflation has eased since May, to 14.63% in September, so even after the cut its real rate sits above 8 points. South Africa's inflation has climbed from 3.0% in February to 4.5% in September, with fuel prices up 28% on a year earlier, and its real rate is under 3 points.
Among the floating currencies, Kenya has the thinnest cushion. Inflation has climbed from 4.3% in February to 6.8% in September, with only one brief dip in June. That is still inside the 2.5–7.5% target band, but close to its top, and it leaves a real rate of about 2 points. The Central Bank of Kenya held at 8.75% on 7 October. Another two months of rising prices would put pressure on that hold.
Ghana has the most room, and November is the meeting to watch. Inflation at 5.2% sits below the bottom of the Bank of Ghana's 8% ± 2 band, and the real rate of 8.8 points is the highest in this tracker. The bank has held at 14% for three meetings, citing global risk. Its next decision is on 18 November.
The CFA franc unions work differently. With currencies pegged to the euro, BCEAO and BEAC run low rates against low inflation. West African inflation has turned from negative in the first quarter to 1.7% in August, still inside BCEAO's 1–3% target, which leaves BCEAO with the smallest real rate in the tracker. BEAC has not published a union-wide monthly figure since March; its 28 September statement projects 2.2% for 2026 as a whole, so the CEMAC real rate is shown as indicative.
Decision calendar, 2026
▲ hike · ▼ cut · • hold · ○ scheduledRate-setters at a glance
Select a row for its detail. Column headers sort within each group.| Latest decision | Target | Real rate, Dec–Sep | Next decision |
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How each got here
Policy rate (step line) and annual inflation (orange line), month-end, Dec 2025 to Sep 2026. Each chart has its own scale.Economy detail
Decisions, notes and sources for each rate-setterDecisions in 2026
Sources
Get the data
One row per rate-setter, with the source for each figureCite this edition: Africa Verto, Africa Monetary Pulse, October 2026 edition, data as of 25 October 2026. https://africaverto.com/reports/africa-monetary-pulse/2026-10/
Editions and changes
The page above always shows the latest figures. Each edition is kept unchanged so it can be cited.October 2026 · data as of 25 October 2026 · frozen copy
- South Africa: September CPI added (4.5%, Stats SA, 21 October). Real rate now 2.75, from 2.85 on August data.
- WAEMU: August inflation of 1.7% confirmed as the BCEAO Governor's reported outturn. The 1.3% figure in some reports was the BCEAO's own July projection for August, not the outturn.
- CEMAC: still no union-wide monthly figure after March. BEAC's 28 September statement projects 2.2% for 2026 as a whole. Real rate remains indicative.
- Next decisions added: Egypt 29 Oct, Ghana 18 Nov, South Africa 19 Nov, Nigeria 23–24 Nov.
- Clarification, 25 October 2026: the Central Bank of Nigeria’s 21 July hold was previously described as unanimous. The CBN’s published decisions do not state the vote, so that description has been removed. The Egypt source list now links Ahram Online’s report of August nationwide inflation, the figure cited in the method notes.
- Clarification, 25 October 2026: this edition lists Nigeria’s target as not found in the sources reviewed. The CBN has stated a medium-term inflation target of 6–9%; later editions show it.
Method and data notes
How the real rate is calculated
Real rate = the central bank's main policy rate minus the latest published annual (year-on-year) headline inflation. It is a backward-looking measure. It does not use inflation forecasts, and it ignores the gap between the policy rate and what banks actually pay depositors or charge borrowers.
Which rate and which inflation measure
- Nigeria: Monetary Policy Rate; NBS headline CPI. NBS rebased the CPI to a 2024 base year in 2025, so comparisons with pre-2025 figures need care.
- South Africa: repo rate; Stats SA headline CPI.
- Egypt: overnight deposit rate, the floor of the CBE corridor (the main operation rate is 0.5 points higher); CAPMAS urban headline CPI, the measure the CBE targets. Nationwide inflation runs lower (12.7% in August).
- Kenya: Central Bank Rate; KNBS overall CPI.
- Ghana: Monetary Policy Rate; Ghana Statistical Service headline CPI.
- BCEAO (WAEMU, 8 countries): minimum bid rate for liquidity injections; union-wide CPI as reported by BCEAO.
- BEAC (CEMAC, 6 countries): tender interest rate (TIAO); union-wide CPI as reported by BEAC.
Known gaps and how they are handled
- CEMAC inflation: BEAC has not published a union-wide monthly figure after March 2026 (1.0% year on year). Its 28 September MPC statement projects 2.2% for 2026 as a whole. The CEMAC real rate is shown as indicative; at 2.2% it would be 2.30 rather than 3.50.
- WAEMU August inflation: the BCEAO Governor reported 1.7% to the 9 September MPC, and this tracker uses that outturn. Reports of 1.3% repeated the BCEAO's own July projection for August.
- WAEMU January to March: only a quarterly figure (−0.2%) was published, so those months are left blank in the charts rather than estimated.
- Source tiers: each economy's source list marks primary releases and press reports of those releases. Where a figure rests on press reporting, the primary release is linked when it is available.
Why the monetary unions count as one row
The eight WAEMU states share one central bank and one policy rate, as do the six CEMAC states. Showing each union once avoids repeating the same rate 14 times. Country-level inflation inside each union varies (Mali and Burkina Faso ran above the WAEMU average in August), and a later version can break that out.